My personal notes

On European electricity markets, battery optimization, trading systems, and machine learning. By Georg Walther.

Highlights

Latest

Wide day-ahead spread in France today: 19 €/MWh at 15h, 241 €/MWh at 19h.

Wide day-ahead spread in France today: 19 €/MWh at 15h, 241 €/MWh at 19h. That is 222 €/MWh from trough to peak (241 - 19). Did not expect French evening prices this high. Wind was weak and gas output on Friday was 5.4x the previous Friday’s, per RTE data cited by Selectra. Whether French gas or neighbours set the peak, this data does not say. https://selectra.info/energie/actualites/prix-electricite/2026-10-17

October 17, 2026 · 1 min · Georg Walther

Google, Nvidia and Emerald AI have launched a coalition around making data centers more flexible grid loads.

Google, Nvidia and Emerald AI have launched a coalition around making data centers more flexible grid loads. The basic idea is that data centers could agree to reduce their electricity consumption during periods of grid stress, for example by shifting AI workloads, using onsite batteries or switching to local generation. In return utilities could probably connect them faster, or allow larger connections, without first building enough grid capacity for their full peak demand at all times. ...

October 16, 2026 · 1 min · Georg Walther

Some lithium-ion battery milestones summarized by the IEA:

Some lithium-ion battery milestones summarized by the IEA: China had identified EVs in the early 2000s as a strategic means to establish itself in the automotive sector and become less reliant on oil. Today, China is the world’s largest car producer and exporter (globally >70% of electric car production, 85% of lithium-ion battery production). The bar chart shows EV and stationary battery deployment in GWh. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-rise-of-lithium-ion-batteries ...

October 15, 2026 · 1 min · Georg Walther

Congestion arrangements are intended to allow more assets to connect to a congested grid while giving grid operators controls to keep flows within grid limits.

Congestion arrangements are intended to allow more assets to connect to a congested grid while giving grid operators controls to keep flows within grid limits. These arrangements come in different forms and names: flexible connection agreements (FCAs), capacity-limiting contracts, time of use etc. KYOS simulated a 1 MW / 4 MWh battery trading Dutch intraday (2027–28). Fixed congestion windows (no discharge 12–14h, no charge 18–20h) cut revenue by ~4%. Blocking the two cheapest charge and two priciest discharge hours each day cut it by ~13%, more than three times as much. ...

October 14, 2026 · 1 min · Georg Walther

Interesting explainer by the French Nuclear Society (Sfen) on how rotating masses of nuclear power plants provide inertia to the grid.

Interesting explainer by the French Nuclear Society (Sfen) on how rotating masses of nuclear power plants provide inertia to the grid. I read it via machine translation from French. The rotor of a nuclear power plant alternator rotates at 1500 rpm, generating a sinusoidal voltage of frequency 50 Hz. Any imbalance between mechanical power (Pm) and electrical power (Pe) leads to a change in rotor speed and therefore electrical frequency. The kinetic energy of the rotating mass acts as buffer between mechanical and electrical power. ...

October 13, 2026 · 2 min · Georg Walther

I came across a paper by Yu et al. asking whether the intraday orderbook already contains information about where the imbalance price will land. They test it on Germany and Austria for 2022 to 2024.

I came across a paper by Yu et al. asking whether the intraday orderbook already contains information about where the imbalance price will land. They test it on Germany and Austria for 2022 to 2024. My rough reading: they find orderbook features alone are a strong predictor of imbalance prices. Adding fundamentals like wind, solar and load helps in Germany but makes results worse in Austria. The best orderbook summary was the volume-weighted price of the target quarter hour plus the next few products. ...

October 12, 2026 · 1 min · Georg Walther

Italy's newly installed battery storage capacity fell 58% year on year over the 12 months to June 2026. The decline accelerated in Q2 and was driven by the residential segment, which recorded its 11th consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline.

Italy’s newly installed battery storage capacity fell 58% year on year over the 12 months to June 2026. The decline accelerated in Q2 and was driven by the residential segment, which recorded its 11th consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline. Anie Rinnovabili’s Storage Systems Observatory, based on Terna’s Gaudì data, shows a 58% drop in installed capacity and 42% fall in power. Compared with PNIEC targets, Italy has a gap of approximately 2 GWh for distributed storage and 50 GWh for centralized storage. ...

October 9, 2026 · 1 min · Georg Walther

Germany’s energy regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, published its MiSpeL decision last week.

Germany’s energy regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, published its MiSpeL decision last week. As I read it, a battery colocated with a PV plant in direct marketing no longer has to choose between storing only solar to keep EEG support and charging from the grid to trade. It can do both, with 15-minute metering, netted monthly, that splits its output into EEG-eligible and grid-sourced power. If that works in practice, EEG-supported PV parks could use colocated batteries for grid trading too, not just for shifting their own solar. ...

October 8, 2026 · 1 min · Georg Walther

European battery storage installations forecast to jump from 32 GWh in 2025 to 57 GWh in 2026 (78% YoY) per EUPD Research's EES Report.

European battery storage installations forecast to jump from 32 GWh in 2025 to 57 GWh in 2026 (78% YoY) per EUPD Research’s EES Report. Falling battery costs, higher electricity prices, and solar-plus-storage adoption driving growth. Residential segment: 11 GWh to 15 GWh (36% YoY). Germany leads, followed by Italy, Netherlands, UK, Austria. https://eupd-group.com/europes-battery-storage-boom-accelerates-as-2026-installations-set-to-jump-78-yoy/

October 7, 2026 · 1 min · Georg Walther

Interesting conversation between Patrick Reynolds and Steffen Krutzinna on what trading desks struggle with and why you should spend some time “watching intraday TV”.

Interesting conversation between Patrick Reynolds and Steffen Krutzinna on what trading desks struggle with and why you should spend some time “watching intraday TV”. Some of my takeaways: The whole machine needs to work. Asset-backed algo trading is a big, multi-stage process. Amazing forecasting or optimisation capabilities don’t translate directly into P&L. Neither does a sophisticated execution engine without useful signals. The mundane insight: you need to be good at most steps to become an above-average desk. Being the best at one step won’t get you there on its own. ...

October 6, 2026 · 3 min · Georg Walther